In reflection of my own decision-making process, I see, like the instances in the text, I am extremely prone to making myopic decisions. Only in the most extreme of decisions do I contemplate more than one or two steps ahead. To make better decisions, I need to quit using intuitive problem solving for most of my decision making and instead consider adopting a multistage process.
To optimally solve problems, the Hoch and Kunruether suggest the use of mathematical formulas in the solution of multi-stage problems (2001). This allows the consideration of both known and unknown factors using probability and statistics rather than relying on intuition and experience. Until this reading, I did not realize there were actual formulas which could be used to guide decision making. I have used mathematics to guide much of my decision processes throughout my life as I am a very mathematically inclined person. I feel the science of mathematics is more reliable than the instinctive, gut feelings that some people would rather use. While some decisions are best made using experience as the basis, without prior evidence, the ground seems very unstable to not use some form of scientific method.
That said, there have been many times when my father has seemed somewhat of a seer with his reliance on intuition which proves to be successful in positive outcomes. I have longed to have the ability to jump to a correct decision, as this seems to be a much less complicated manner of decision making. My trouble has always been having peace with a decision I made which resulted in an unfavorable conclusion when I failed to use sound reasoning as a basis for that decision.
The four questions the book mentioned asking to help determine if you are making sound decisions seems very insightful and thought provoking. The first question: "Am I being myopic?" helps to answer if you have considered beyond your immediate circumstance. It is important to consider how the action you will take is going to affect the future and future decisions as well. The second question; "How appropriate is the starting analogy I am using to solve a problem?" asks us to introspect our assumptions and assure ourselves the analogies we have made were properly formed. The third question; "What are the penalties for making an error?" is the question that frightens me the most when I consider my consequences for a bad decision. In this question we need to make certain that we consider if there is a better solution that has less of a penalty if we get this wrong. Finally, "What am I learning from the feedback I am receiving?" When we make a mistake, are we learning from that process to prevent making the same mistake twice?
For me, reading this chapter brought back a scene from the movie Mulan (Coats & Bancroft, 1998) where our heroine had written the responses she was supposed to give when the matchmaker quizzed her. The final admonition she was supposed to state was "Fulfill your duties calmly and respectfully. Reflect before you act. This will bring you honor and glory!". In decision making it is important that we always contemplate the four questions listed above when at a precipice of decision making.
References:
Coats, P. (Producer) & Bancroft, T. (Director) (1998) Mulan. USA. Disney Animation Studios.
Hoch, S., & Kunreuther, H. (2001) Wharton on Making Decisions. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hoboken, NJ.
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